Amidst the sudden spurt in Corona cases, what decisions will the RBI take in this policy to boost growth? The meeting of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee has started from today. Keeping this in mind, we have brought here a full coverage on the RBI policy. In which an attempt has been made to know what RBI will do to extinguish Corona’s struggling economy, how much of a challenge Corona’s second web will prove, what steps RBI can take to overcome Bond Yield and the retail inflation. What will be the perspective? Joining the discussion with CNBC Awaaz are Saugata Bhattacharya of Axis Bank, Jayesh Mehta of Bank of America, DK Joshi of CRISIL, Aditi Nayar of ICRA and Lakshmi Iyer of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Significantly, on April 7, the first policy of the new fiscal year will come. Meanwhile, Corona’s second wave has emerged as a big challenge for growth. Increasing Bond Yield and government borrowing are also major challenges for the RBI. In the upcoming policy on April 7, everyone will keep an eye on this, what is the RBI’s view on the inflation of Kiritel. Significantly, in February, fuel inflation stood at 6.94 percent. Similarly, core core inflation was also at the level of 5.36 per cent, both these figures were at their 2-year high.
Experts say that increasing growth will be a priority for the Reserve Bank. Despite this, a cut in interest rates is not expected. Currently, the reverse repo is currently at 3.35 per cent and the repo rate at 4 per cent. At the same time, CRR has been increased from 3% to 3.5% with effect from 27 March 2021. At the same time, CRR will increase to 4 per cent from 22 May 2021.
Talking about these issues Axis Bank के Saugata Bhattacharya Says that there is no hope of a change in rates, but the guidance is expected to be slightly softer than last time. Retail inflation could remain between 5-5.2 per cent in Apr-Sep. He said that further rate cut is possible when there is a full lockdown.
Bank of America के Jayesh Mehta Says that the Corona Second Wave is expected to soften Bond Yields. The 10 Year Bond Yields are estimated to be 6-6.3 per cent. Bond yields may fall if growth falls in lockdown. Increasing growth will be the first priority for the RBI. The market wants the exemption in Maturity Rules to continue till 2024.
CRISIL के DK Joshi Says that other agencies have increased India’s growth outlook but RBI can maintain its growth estimate of 10.5%. He further said that the RBI of Corona’s second wave can keep its growth estimate low. Growth is the first priority for RBI. Bond Markets can be assured on the government’s borrowings from the RBI. He also said that High Frequency Indicators show that growth slowed down in March. Given that the second wave of Corona will not be limited to Maharashtra only, we will be watching what the RBI decides.
ICRA की Aditi Nayar Says that RBI will probably keep the guidance soft in the next 2 policies. RBI may remain soft until all adults receive the vaccine. He further said that the growth estimates are already very low, there is no need to cut them. Inflation estimates are not expected to be raised at the moment.
Lakshmi Iyer of Kotak Mahindra AMC The RBI estimates that inflation will be watched by everyone. Policy Meets is expected to give clear guidance on OMO to the bond market.
For social media updates, we need Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/moneycontrolhindi/) And Twitter (.).