Introducing Capitalmind Chase | A systematic index trend following strategy » Capitalmind

Introducing Capitalmind Chase | A systematic index trend following strategy » Capitalmind


📣   Today we introduce Capitalmind Chase for our Premium Subscribers. A Systematic (rule-based) Trend-Following Strategy that combines holding the NIFTY with directional (long-short) positions in NIFTY Futures aimed at market+ risk-adjusted returns across market cycles

Read on for an overview of the strategy, who should and should NOT trade this strategy, and a limited-time offer to access Capitalmind Chase.

Capitalmind Chase – Strategy Overview

  • Aims to deliver risk adjusted returns across market cycles on the NIFTY50 Index
  • Offers a low-leverage1 approach to Futures trading
  • Uses a Systematic Trend Following based model to avoid any ‘Emotional Bias’ or Discretion.
  • Designed to offer Alpha Potential in all market cycles through downside risk management in falling markets and upside participation in rising markets
  • Traded on NIFTY Futures. Expect 5-6 trades a month.

What returns can I expect?

Historically the strategy has outperformed a NIFTY Buy & Hold strategy by a considerable margin.

Capitalmind Chase has delivered an annualized return of 37.41 %, while a buy and hold on NIFTY delivered close to 8.20% since 2008.

YTD NAV Comparison – 2020

To get a better sense of how the strategy performs on an EOD basis and across market regimes, we compare Capitalmind Chase NAV with that of a NIFTY Index Mutual fund.

As visible from the chart, the strategy protects on the downside and offers alpha on the upside.

Click on the image to enlarge

YoY Performance of Capitalmind Case

Here’s the performance chart for Capitalmind Case compared with NIFTY and the Futures only component since 2008.

Interpreting the values in the chart

If you are looking at the 2020 values, and say if you had invested Rs.10,00,000 on 1st Jan’20, Your capital as of June’20, would be at Rs.8,44,300 on NIFTY (-15.57) , Rs.13,45,800 on Futures (+34.58) & Rs. 11,90,100 on CM Chase (+19.01).

Introducing Capitalmind Chase | A systematic index trend following strategy

Whats the take away?

You will notice, in any of the 12 years in the past, Capitalmind Chase has done better than NIFTY. In essence we expect to beat NIFTY returns through this strategy.

Who is this strategy good for?

This strategy is ideally suited for investors and traders who can afford to be moderately active in the markets. You do not have to be glued to the markets though. You should have a fair understanding of Index futures as a product and the inherent risks that come with it. On an average there would be 5 to 6 trades a month and you would need to have access to your trading account during the day when the trades are actioned.

If you are already invested in the markets through Index Mutual funds or have investments in Large cap stocks, this strategy works as an ideal hedge.

Who should NOT trade this strategy?

If you are new to futures/derivatives trading and do not understand the inherent risks in trading leveraged products.

If you want to trade only parts of this strategy by using broker or exchange provided leverage.

If you cannot be active during market hours to execute the trades.

What’s the underlying concept behind this strategy?

The strategy is based on the concept of Trend Following, we’ve done a series of posts on this. You can start with the first one here.

How does the strategy get actioned?

All Capitalmind Premium subscribers get access to the Premium slack forum where any actions on our portfolios and strategies are shared. You would receive the Buy / Sell signals on the Capitalmind Slack platform. You can setup notifications to receive specific alerts. Note: We do not send sms updates.

What are the risks associated with this strategy?

The worst that can happen while you are in the trade, is an index circuit against you, which can be at max 20% on a given day, since we are not using any leverage it would mean a 20% hit on the notional equivalent capital, 2x if it happens when the system is long. Something that has never happened in the past 12 years though.

Of the 17 Crashes in the past 12 years, a crash defined as a greater than 2% fall intraday on NIFTY, CM Chase was Short ahead of it 16 times.

The strategy has delivered positive returns over the past 12 years with decent Sharpe ratio  of 1.77.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Risk warning and disclosure

There are special risks associated with an investment in futures including market price fluctuation, leverage risk, liquidity risk,  economic changes and the impact of adverse, political, geological or financial factors. No investment/trading strategy can guarantee performance results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to a multitude of risks, including loss of principal invested.

1 The system follows a conditional leverage approach, the position is levered 2x on the upside and is not levered on the downside, the system does not use any margin benefits and trades based on the notional contract value as the allocated capital. 

To get access to Capitalmind Chase, and to our other model portfolios and slack access, subscribe to Premium. For a limited time, we are offering 20% off on the annual plan. Use Coupon Code CHASE20. If you’d like to try us out with a Quarterly plan, use Coupon Code CHASE15 to get 15% off.

Source link

Leave a Reply